9 Key Questions Stemming from the Latest Adams Investigation

In one fell swoop last week, the FBI executed raids on virtually all of New York City Mayor Eric Adams top advisors including Schools Chancellor David Banks, Police Commissioner Edward Caban, First Deputy Mayor Sheena Wright, Deputy Mayor for Public Safety Phil Banks, Senior Advisor Timothy Pearson and multiple others. Their phones and records were seized. 

Something is clearly very, very wrong. And the implications range far and wide. What we do know so far pales in comparison to what we don’t know. To me, these are the pressing questions stemming from the investigation.

(1). Who gets indicted?

Right now, no one has actually been accused of anything, let alone indicted. But when the police commissioner, the schools chancellor, The first deputy mayor, the deputy mayor for public safety, the mayor’s senior advisor and others are all the subject of raids by the FBI on the same day, that’s not only bad, it’s remarkable. 

If they are guilty of something, the question is whether Adams was involved or knew about it. If yes, then history says that one of them (or perhaps all of them) will flip on Adams to save themselves. If not, Adams keeps going as is (keep in mind, there are also at least three other pending federal investigations into the administration, so at least in theory, an indictment could stem from something else). 

(2). If a number of top staffers are indicted but Adams is not, how much does it hurt him?

If Adams avoids indictment but multiple top staffers do not, how bad is that for him? It’s certainly not good. Will it matter to voters? It likely will to good government progressives, but they’re already opposed to Adams, so there’s nothing to lose there. The question is whether non-progressive whites, black, Latino and Asian voters in a Democratic mayoral primary care. If Trump is any guide, many will not care. But enough will care that it has to take away a chunk of votes from Adams. That certainly helps Comptroller Brad Lander – Adams’ top opponent – but it could also help lure others into the race, which might be the greater risk. 

With that said, do not underestimate Eric Adams. He is extremely charismatic. He is an excellent fundraiser. He has taken care of virtually every major union and will likely have their support. He has the advantages of incumbency. He has some impressive policy wins including job growth and higher test scores. And he has made a lot of progress lately on some of the major quality of life issues facing the city, especially closing illegal weed shops and cleaning up the streets (starting with taking down dining sheds; scaffolding and bikes on the sidewalk need to come next). 

(3). Does Adams resign if he is indicted?

No. Why would he? It would only make him look guilty and hurt him at trial. And by staying in the race, he potentially keeps challengers like Andrew Cuomo out. Adams would only resign if it’s part of a broader plea deal to avoid prison. Otherwise, he’s not going anywhere. 

(4). If Adams did resign and there’s a special election, who wins?

If Adams did resign as part of a plea deal, we’d have a 60-day special election in which all registered voters can participate. All of the current candidates will run in the special, but others will too. Public Advocate Jumaane Williams does not seem to want to be mayor, but he’d still probably consider it. Some billionaire will convince themselves they could win if they spend enough (the problem is they’re being mainly influenced by their very rich friends who know absolutely nothing about municipal elections, despite thinking they do). 

Andrew Cuomo is, of course, the 800-pound gorilla here. He has the name ID, money and skill to win a 60-day sprint that’s open to all voters (winning a Democratic primary would be much harder). And while I doubt she’d ever want to have to actually run something and be held accountable for it, AOC could also win (Congressman Ritchie Torres would also be formidable but has no interest in the race). 

(5). Under what scenarios would Cuomo run?

If there is a special (which is unlikely), Cuomo will run and he will have a good chance of winning. If Adams is indicted but does not resign, in order to run, Cuomo will have to believe that Adams is sufficiently weak with black voters that there’s now a sufficient opening to win. Because of the multiple sexual harassment allegations against him that led to his resignation as Governor, many voters in a Democratic primary will not support him. 

However, the city also feels like a mess and all polling indicates the voters strongly feel that way, which means a lot of voters will just want someone who can clean the city up, no matter how else they feel about Cuomo. And because of ranked choice voting, Cuomo both may see himself as the likely second choice among many Adams voters but also may be the last choice among everyone else, so that impacts the math (and therefore his ultimate decision) too. If Adams is not indicted, it’s unlikely Cuomo runs unless the public is so outraged by the other indictments (if they occur) that he thinks the opening is there anyway. That seems less likely.

(6). If Adams runs while under indictment, can he win?

Donald Trump was recently convicted on 34 criminal counts and still has a 50% chance of winning the presidency in two months. So it’s clearly not impossible. With that said, Adams’ base is not nearly as passionate as Trump’s, a New York City Democratic mayoral primary is very different from a presidential general election, and Trump is just an outlier in every way, shape and form, so applying his lessons to anyone else rarely works. 

Given that Adams poll numbers are already historically low, the odds of him then overcoming both his current unpopularity and a criminal indictment seem very tough. On the other hand, if Adams can keep Cuomo out of the race and limit the main competition to himself and Lander, he may be able to paint Lander as the architect and supporter of most of the policies that make New York City feel like such a mess right now (keep in mind, Lander is on record supporting defunding the police among dozens of other very far left positions that are way out of touch with virtually all non-progressive voters). 

(7). Is there anyone else who could win the Democratic primary?

The other two main candidates currently in the race are former Comptroller Scott Stringer and current State Senator Zellnor Myrie. The path is tough, but not impossible, for each of them. 

Stringer is a traditional liberal but not as powerful or well liked among progressives as Lander, so they’re mainly competing for the same voters. With the New York Times deciding to no longer endorse candidates in local races, Stringer’s biggest ace in the hole no longer exists (the Times’ decision also hurts Lander and helps Adams and Cuomo). However, Stringer has been around forever (he also served as Manhattan Borough President and as a state assemblyman), has name ID, and could hope to be the second choice of enough voters to come out on top. It’s unlikely, but not impossible. 

Myrie is appealing in many ways, but the question is whether there’s a realistic path. If Adams remains in the race, it’s unclear that he can take black voters away from the incumbent. With Lander in the race, it’s unlikely that progressives choose Myrie instead. Myrie could pursue the technocrat approach that almost propelled Kathryn Garcia to victory in 2021 but Garcia was an actual operator (Myrie is a legislator, which means he runs nothing) and she had the benefit of an early Times endorsement, which is not happening this time. In theory, a coalition of some progressives and some moderates who want a technocrat could succeed, but breaking through to any of them will be tough.

(8). Could anyone else win in a general?

It’s very hard to see how a Republican can win the general. However, the more dangerous the city feels, the better the chances. Rudy Giuliani won in 1993 because crime and murders were out of control and the voters just wanted someone to put a stop to it. Mike Bloomberg won in 2001 because 9/11 had just happened, people were petrified and wanted an adult in charge. It’s impossible to know where the city will be a year from now but if it’s similar to how it is today, it’s probably not bad enough to give a Republican a chance (and the voter base has become even more Democratic since the days of Bloomberg and Giuliani). 

However, if Lander is the nominee (or maybe even Adams), could Cuomo run as an independent and win (he’d need the GOP line or for it to remain open)? It’s not impossible. In fact, you could argue he would be better off avoiding a Democratic primary altogether and just competing in the general. It’s still very difficult but not out of the question.

(9). When will we know anything?

The U.S. Attorneys’ Office moves at its own pace. A year ago, when the FBI seized Adams phones on the street, everyone thought an indictment was imminent. Nothing happened. However, prosecutors typically try to not interfere in elections so if that does matter to SDNY chief Damian Williams, he would need to indict by the end of this calendar year. Also, if Trump wins in November, Williams and his team will be fired the minute Trump takes office (it’s unclear if Harris would appoint her own person there or not). The same logic applies to the Eastern District, which is also conducting one of the investigations. 

Also, when the FBI does something as public as seizing the Mayor’s phones or raiding the homes of the police commissioner and schools chancellor and deputy mayors, it usually means they have the goods for an indictment. But that wasn’t the case last year and may not be again. But still, if something is going to happen, it likely happens in the next three months.