Five Immediate Questions
(1). What does Biden’s withdrawal mean?
First, no one knows anything. But that never stops us from pretending otherwise.
At first blush, Biden’s withdrawal at least gives the Democrats a better chance of winning the Presidency than if he remained on the ticket. But even more likely, it means that a down ballot wipeout won’t happen.
Had Biden remained the nominee, a lot of Democrats wouldn’t have bothered to vote. That likely would have spelled disaster for Democratic House and Senate candidates across the board. Now, turnout will be very strong. Even if Harris doesn’t win, the Democrats are now far more competitive in the House and Senate. This is why Schumer, Jeffries and Pelosi all pressed Biden to withdraw.
(2). Who is the best VP for Harris?
This assumes that Harris is the nominee, which feels very likely. It’s hard to see any of the other options publicly opposing her. They’ll hope that the party elders do it for them but the elders already pushed Biden out. Unlikely they now push Harris out too. In fact, as I’m writing this, Bill and Hillary Clinton and Jim Clyburn just announced their support for Harris (although notably Obama did not).
Assuming that’s right, there are two questions: who most helps Harris win and will all of the potential options want to be on the ticket? The former seems to favor Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer or Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro. If the blue wall doesn’t hold, it’s over. Whitmer means an all female ticket which has both incredible electoral potential and also comes with the risk of centuries of sexism. Shapiro means a Jewish VP. Supporting Jews is the opposite of what we’ve seen from the far left since October 7. Both are probably the best options, but neither are risk free.
Would it make sense for a top 2028 candidate to take the VP slot? It depends on if they think Harris can win. If they truly do, then of course they’ll say yes. Pretty much everyone always does. If they don’t, then being the losing VP may hurt their chances four years from now (offhand, other than FDR in 1920, I can’t think of anyone who has been the losing VP candidate and then later become President; ChatGPT also says John Tyler did it). Odds are whoever is asked says yes, but it’s not a no brainer.
(3). Does money now matter a lot more in this race?
Very much so. In Biden v Trump, you had two Presidents with 100% name ID. Whether a swing voter in Maricopa County got 32 Biden mailers or 23 made zero difference. But Harris, while the sitting VP, is still relatively unknown compared to Biden. Incredible amounts of money will be spent on both sides to define her. Television ads will matter, mail will matter, digital will matter, field will certainly matter. In 2020, I made a six figure donation to a Biden SuperPac. I did not see the point of doing so this time around. Now I do.
(4). Should the Republicans try to impeach Biden?
I hope not but I would if I were them. If the nominee were someone other than Harris, then it may be a sideshow that doesn’t help them win in November. But given that virtually the entire country believes that Biden is too old and sick to run again, anyone involved in the decision to cover for him over the past two years will now face suspicion.
That mainly applies to Biden’s family and key staffers but the Republicans will try to paint Harris with the same brush. If they can do so successfully, that will continue to dominate the coverage and be a potential liability for Harris. So expect proceedings to begin immediately (and while GOP House unity has been tough to come by in the past few years, there’s no reason for any of them to jump ship on this one).
(5). How much does abortion matter?
I think a lot. It has been the key weapon for Democratic candidates since Dobbs was decided by the Court two years ago. It was not going to be enough to carry Biden to victory, but with a female candidate who is very, very strong on this issue, it becomes a lot more salient.
Harris will make abortion the number one issue on the campaign trail and in the September debate. Trump is already trying to walk a very fine line between his base and everyone else. The issue that has been the third rail of American politics for the last 50 years will dominate again.
Dozens more questions will emerge in the coming days but as of this moment, to me, these are top of mind.