Hochul Steals a Page from The Art of the Deal
Obviously, this isn’t an actual deal. I made it up. But Hochul needs to start thinking in Trumpian terms.
In a major exclusive, the Firewall substack has just confirmed a history-making trade between New York Governor Kathy Hochul and President Donald Trump.
In the deal, New York will receive $60 billion in new federal funding over the next five years to entirely re-imagine and re-build the city’s subway system. The money includes $25 billion to fully fund the MTA’s capital plan, $25 billion to remake the stations and trains (that must be completed in 10 years or the money goes away) and a $10 billion permanent fund that provides for massive upgrades in law enforcement presence, security, system maintenance, mental health outreach and cleaning. Additionally, the deal includes removal of wage requirements for subway projects and mandates expedited permitting by each level of government for all subway projects.
In return, the special election to fill the seat held by US Representative Elise Stefanik (who is waiting to begin her term as US Ambassador to the United Nations) will be held in 60 days upon passage of new legislation in Albany (Speaker Carl Heastie and Senate Majority Leader Andrea Stewart-Cousins were instrumental in reaching the agreement). New York’s congestion pricing program will be terminated with the MTA’s lawsuit against the U.S. Department of Transportation immediately withdrawn. Additionally, a subway station in each borough will be named after President Trump and the Trump name will be restored to both the Ferry Point Golf Course in the Bronx and to Wollman Rink in Central Park.
Obviously, this isn’t an actual deal. I made it up. In fact, Hochul recently said she would need $15 billion to replace the lost revenue from congestion pricing. But she’s thinking too small and she certainly isn’t thinking in Trumpian terms.
Why does this make sense for Trump? While the GOP holds a narrow 220-215 seat majority in the House, three of those Republicans have been named to new positions by Trump. That gives the GOP a one seat effective majority, meaning they need almost every single member to pass anything.
Holding 217 politicians together on anything is insanely difficult, as Speaker Johnson found in the recent budget vote where he was able to withstand just one defection. And yet, politically, this is Trump’s moment. Most presidents achieve the bulk of their legislative agenda in the first year. If history is any guide, the Democrats will re-take the House in 2026, thwarting any chance of Trump pushing his agenda through Congress.
At the moment, the GOP is holding off confirming Stefanik to help avoid this problem, but that then leaves the United States without an ambassador to the UN. As we’ve heard once or twice, Trump has very strong feelings about trade, Ukraine, Russia, China, NATO, Gaza, Greenland, Canada, Mexico, the Panama Canal, immigration and dozens of other international issues. Not having his person at the UN arguing for his positions undermines his efficacy. He needs Stefanik there.
Trump has moved to kill congestion pricing with his Transportation Department recently revoking federal approval for the program. However, the MTA immediately sued and legal experts question the federal government’s authority to end the program, so the outcome is unclear at best.
And, whether he likes it or not, Trump is a New Yorker at heart. Yes, he left us for Florida, but he’s a child of Queens and spent much of his heyday in Manhattan. Winning the enduring gratitude of millions of New Yorkers by saving the subway has to be incredibly appealing, even if he might not admit it. Trump loves being the hero and right now, millions of daily riders feel like the system is disgusting and dangerous. They want a savior, even if his initials happen to be DJT.
As for Hochul, the deal would be the biggest win of her career. While she has generally governed rationally and thoughtfully, she does not have a signature achievement that everyone can immediately identify and rally around. Where is her Moynihan Station or LaGuardia renovation?
Getting the feds to pay to fix the entire subway system would be an unheard-of coup, a major boost in New York City and the suburbs for her re-election and a legacy builder. Having an excuse to end congestion pricing helps her too. She knows it’s unpopular, especially among the swing voters she’ll need in a general election. Just killing it for her own politics hurts her badly with the left, as she already saw last summer. But as part of this deal? Complainers will look petty.
Finally, as an upstate native and former House member, she can’t feel good about depriving an entire upstate district of representation in Congress.
Who would oppose this deal? Well, there are a lot of House Democrats who care far more about blocking Trump than they do about our subways. Then there’s Mike Lawler, the House Republican from the Hudson Valley who plans to challenge Hochul for governor in 2026. He does not want her anywhere near a win like this. And while Republicans in DC will complain about sending so much money to New York City, the disparity between what New York sends to Washington and what it gets back is so severe, this is barely even a down payment on what we’re owed.
On the other side of the ledger, you’ve got Trump, Hochul, New York City residents, tourists, business travelers, suburbanites and New Jersey commuters. For all of them, it’s Santa Claus coming down the chimney with a big sack of gifts — an exponentially better subway system and no congestion fees all in one.
Rarely does such an epic, bipartisan win-win opportunity like this come along. But here it is. Governor Hochul, President Trump — this is your chance.