How Incumbents Can Avoid A Death Spiral In Four Easy Steps

Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are not the first set of incumbents to try to pretend that everything is fantastic. Incumbents everywhere want to say this, both because they’re sensitive to attacks on their work and because convincing everyone that things are actually great with a poll tested magic slogan seems easier than admitting that they’re not and figuring out how to do everything differently (this is why every elected official blames their problems on failed communications rather than failed strategy or hiring or execution). 

But as we saw last week, you can pretend all you want. The voters know and if they think you’re lying to them, they punish you. So if you are an incumbent and what you’re selling isn’t working, here’s a guide for how to think about it differently.

(1). Be honest with yourself — are things truly going well? You can tell with polling data, you can tell with focus groups, but more important, you can tell just by talking to a wide cross section of real people. Anecdotal evidence is often better than statistical in this case. 

Do not just surround yourself with people who tell you what you want to hear or people who only think like you or people who are vested in your keeping the status quo (and just raising lots of money from said status quo will not save you). I had a boss once (Henry Stern) who said, “I want people who will tell me no, even if it will cost them their job.” He was right. You need staff that will tell you hard truths and if you’re not secure enough to employ them, you’re not up to the job in the first place. 

(2). If you conclude that the people do not feel like things are going well — but you still truly think they are — see if there is an argument that can convince them. It has to pass muster with real people, not just pundits, and not just in your algorithmically-optimized social media bubble. Bidenomics may have played well with MSNBC hosts but real people never bought that inflation wasn’t a problem. Eric Adams can say that crime is down but New Yorkers still feel like the city is dirty, chaotic and unsafe (Trump’s 30% vote share in NYC makes that abundantly clear). Maybe there is a unique argument that once people hear it, their views will change. Nothing wrong with spending a few hours trying to figure it out. But if your gut tells you it’s a stretch, listen to it. 

(3). Once you’re done lying to yourself, figure out how to become an agent of change from within. What are people unhappy about, why, and how can we address it? Is the problem our policies or are others stopping us from doing what’s needed? If it’s our policies, how do we change them and have the courage to admit it? If it’s others, how do we describe the enemy and run against them? How do we translate that into action as much as possible? How do we show the people we’re fighting on their behalf, for the things they care about, relentlessly?

When I worked for Chuck Schumer, he always understood that it didn’t matter if people really saw or cared what his constant press conferences were actually about. It just mattered that they felt like he was working hard for New York. And they did (and do). 

Same thing here — you can run against the system even if you’re in the system. Unions, special interest groups, community boards, policy advocates, think tanks, the other party, extremists in your own party can all be the problem. Laws that are broken can be the problem. Systems that are broken can be the problem. You need something that you’re fighting against in order to serve the people you represent. You need to convey that it’s you and the people against everyone else and you need to be able to explain exactly what the problem is and exactly how you can fix it. 

If you can’t figure out who the enemy is, that means it’s you. Voters will make that loud and clear at the ballot box. 

(4). Be honest about what is and isn’t working. Voters appreciate authenticity. Trump is authentically crazy. Harris tends to speak in, as David Axelrod said, word salads. Her words were still more intelligent and rational than Trump’s, but also confusing and often felt hollow. Speak plainly and be willing to admit when things aren’t working. Be able to explain how that happens and who you’re fighting against to make it happen. And then actually make it happen — or at least let people see that you’re really, really trying. 

This approach still may fail. People these days are unhappy in general, social media exacerbates their unhappiness, and the world feels worse than ever. Candidates run for office promising to solve all problems, but the structural flaws in our system often makes that impossible (legislators are solving for their own re-election which, given gerrymandering and very low primary turnout, means keeping the extremes and some special interests happy at all costs, which then means virtually no one can work together and little can get done, so very few problems actually get solved). Voters then feel disappointed and lied to and they throw the bums out. Rinse and repeat. 

But trying to pretend that up is down, that Biden is compos mentis, that inflation isn’t that bad, that NYC feels safe and well run, that the climate is not changing, that our border security isn’t a problem is all a recipe for failure. You can’t pretend that everything is fine and just look to tv hosts and podcasters and consultants to tell you it is and hope that everyone else will come around. It’s not and they won’t. If you know things aren’t working, deal with it honestly and aggressively — or pass the torch (before it’s too late). 

Voters know better. They aren’t stupid. Stop treating them that way.