My Running Election Night Diary and Analysis

I decided the best way to spend election night – to process everything happening, figure out what I think and how I feel, and avoid election parties where I have to make random chit chat with strangers – was to write a running diary over the course of the evening (to be clear, I am ripping this concept off completely from Bill Simmons’ draft diaries). We’re going to post updates hourly, so refresh my Substack page or check your Substack notifications throughout the night to get the latest from me.

11:10: Just took two Tylenol PMs. Know it’s a mistake because even if it does knock me out, I’ll feel groggy and out of it all day tomorrow. With that said, can’t see how I fall or stay asleep without it. I would love nothing more to wake up tomorrow (or, knowing my sleep patterns, at 3am) and see that everything somehow changes and Harris won — or at least that the outcome is truly unknown. That seems very unlikely based on what we know now. It seems like the Senate is also going to be firmly Republican. The House is still unclear but you have to bet on a clean sweep. Meaghan just sent me a tweet from David Shuster making the case that Harris can still win and I hope that’s right. But not feeling likely. 

Thank you for reading. Chris Coffey and I will record a podcast about all of this tomorrow morning and it’ll get posted tomorrow afternoon if you really want more. And if you want a change of pace that has nothing to do with the election, the podcast we released today was really fun (Hugo, Meaghan and I did a draft of character traits you would want knowing everything you know now). 

10:47: Eric Adams is a winner tonight. No saying that Trump has his DOJ drop the charges against him but it’s possible (although keep in mind, Adams approval ratings were historically low — mid 20s — before he got indicted so re-election was very uphill either way). I imagine that the US Attorney now moves quickly to file superseding charges before he’s fired on January 20. Kathy Hochul also a winner — Dems far more likely to hold the governorship than if Harris were president and the backlash went the other way (also good for NJ Democrats in their race to succeed Phil Murphy next year). 

10:29: Let’s say Trump hangs on and wins and let’s try to be optimistic. What good things can come of it? First, predicting anything around Trump is close to pointless because he’s always an outlier in everything. But, in theory, he could reach a deal with Democrats on major immigration reform in a way no one else could (Nixon goes to China). Now, that was true in his first term too and it didn’t happen, but it’s theoretically possible. His policy towards China generally seems right to me. He’ll be supportive of Israel and maybe increase the chances of a deal between Israel and the Saudis (the Abraham Accords was one of the few good things he did as President last time around). His Department of Education will support school choice and charter schools. Maybe he’ll do something useful on free market housing policy. He’ll be good for crypto if that’s your issue. His FTC won’t be reflexively anti all M&A activity and hopefully the right flank of his party will keep the heat on breaking up big tech monopolies (antitrust is one of those issues where the circle meets between the far left and far right). 

Still, hard to compare that to the absolute damage he’ll undoubtedly do on climate, health care, reproductive rights, LGBTQ rights, civil rights, disability rights, voting rights, guns, judicial philosophy, Ukraine, tariffs, mass deportations, relations with most of the world (NATO, Europe, Latin America, Africa, etc…). And that’s just his policy positions. His mental instability and his attempts to undermine the institutions of democracy are even scarier. 

Jeff Bezos, the second richest person in the world, crumbled and refused to have the Washington Post issue an endorsement in the presidential election. If someone as rich and powerful as Bezos can’t stand up to Trump, what’s the IRS Director going to say when they tell him to audit Trump’s 3,000 closest enemies? What if Trump is able to appoint a Fed Chair who cuts rates at his behest? What if Senate Republicans eliminate the filibuster so that any Trump bill can pass with 50 votes?  

Trump’s first term felt awful but because most institutions held, the damage wasn’t as bad as it could have been (climate and judicial appointments excepted). If those institutions fall this time around, there’s no telling where we’ll be in a few years. The civil unrest, the polarization, the hatred, the anger, the recriminations, the grievances, the lack of any respect for norms or institutions will make the next four years fucking horrible.

10:27: It’s almost 10:30 and I’m still eating. Not good.

10:19: Nate Silver still has Harris at 53% chance of winning. Not sure why his analysis is so different from the Times. He has Harris with a 67% chance to win Michigan, 68% chance to win Wisconsin, 51% chance to win Pennsylvania and 59% chance to win Nevada. Obviously I like these numbers much better but not sure I understand it given what we’re seeing everywhere else (tone on tv is decidedly bullish on Trump and reports from Harris HQ are glum).  And hard to compare Nate Silver and his one helper to a team of Times data scientists (Times now estimating 296 electoral college votes for Trump and even has him winning the popular vote by half a percent). 

10:04: Polls are closed in Montana. Just 2% in so far, but if Tester loses to Sheehy, tough for the Democrats to keep the Senate. Would move my old boss Chuck Schumer to Minority Leader. Chuck is nothing if not resilient. He’ll be back.  And Angela Alsobrooks just won in Maryland. Big win over Larry Hogan. Maybe hope for Chuck and the Senate Dems not all lost yet. (but Moreno is up in Ohio and the Wisconsin race is tied).

9:59: Times has Trump at likely in Michigan (56% chance of winning), Wisconsin (55% chance), Pennsylvania (59% chance), Nevada (56% chance). Georgia (82% ) and North Carolina (79%) seem gone. Waiting for Nate Silver to update his model (what the fuck Nate? It’s been almost an hour) but this is not looking great. My main hope is the Times is overweighting in some way towards Trump to avoid their 2016 needle debacle but unlike polling where you have to make assumptions, if it’s just a question of votes recorded and where votes remain and the historical patterns of those counties and the polling, it seems less arbitrary.

9:49: Dan Osborn currently up 8 in Nebraska. Would be exciting for an independent to win. I don’t know the state well at all but if 35% of votes are in total but closer to 50% in Omaha and Lincoln, that doesn’t seem great. But maybe there are Democratic strongholds that also haven’t been counted yet. and maybe my back of the envelope (if that, more like just glancing at the chart and reaching conclusions) math is off.

9:45: We’re back. Critical election night question: what’s appropriate dog walking attire? Tonight wasn’t a problem because I was in my street clothes already, but sometimes I’m a little more casual. For example, this morning, I walked Sam wearing a hoodie (fine), pj pants (questionable), and outdoor slippers (probably okay, though I wore them to a nice restaurant once by accident and got some looks). Throw on a bathrobe and I’m in Vinny the Chin territory. There’s definitely a line between casual, eccentric and crazy. I’m pretty sure I’m on the right side of it but I may be cutting it a little close.

9:30: The pets are clamoring for attention. The cat keeps bringing me her pencil (she plays fetch but, of course, since she’s a cat, there’s also a game within the game where she also sees how far she can drop the pencil away from me and get me to get up and get it; sometimes we have standoffs over this). The dog wants to go outside. I better listen before he makes me pay for ignoring him (he’s around 14 and like old people, he doesn’t give a shit anymore and does what he wants).

9:24: AP projecting Florida abortion amendment failed (got 57%, needed 60%). Just a reminder that women in red states can still access abortion medication via telemedicine. Mayday Health can show you how to access care:

https://www.mayday.health/

9:17: Josh won! (Josh is Josh Gottheimer, my brother in law). I think this is the 5th time he’s won his Congressional seat (NJ-5). Very proud of him. Not a state secret that Josh is likely running for Governor of New Jersey next year. Will be a tough race but I wouldn’t bet against him. He works harder than anyone, raises more money, and is less afraid to say what he thinks and do what he believes. Go Josh.

9:14: Nate Silver has Harris at 53% again. That feels better. This chart may only work for his subscribers but it’s pretty useful:

9:09: Made Lyle go back to studying for chem. It’s hard to tear yourself away from the results even if we won’t know anything for sure for hours (or days or weeks). And he’s a kid that is not into politics. The human drama is irresistible. 

8:59: Ted Cruz likely to win in Texas. Not a surprise despite some hope for Allred. Texas has been purple turning blue for as long as I can remember and it’s redder than ever. This is part of the arrogance and cognitive dissonance of white, progressive Democrats to assume that all people of color are automatically with them. It’s why defund the police type arguments cause Democrats to lose black, Latino and Asian votes. It’s why telling everyone that you’re smarter and morally superior to them and they need to just do what you want only makes people hate you (for example, Fieldston, a private school in NYC, said that kids can skip school tomorrow if Trump wins and they’re too upset to show up; all that did was reinforce every stereotype that Democrats are weak and soft; every time you tell someone what they are and are not allowed to say, you win more votes for Trump). 

8:54: Michigan now tied. Trump ahead in NC. GA looking out of reach. PA very tight. Not good. Humans have this tendency to hear what we want to hear, believe what we want to believe, and to group ourselves into echochambers that reinforce both. So we let ourselves get hopeful. But I guess it’s still (sort of) early. 

8:44: CNN (I couldn’t stay put on one network) showing Biden approval ratings in each swing state. Not surprised that Biden’s approvals are so low — 40 is the new 50 — but I wonder what they’d be had he said 18 months ago that he wasn’t running for re-election. People would still be upset because the world is scary, social media is the unhappiness machine, and the system is so structurally flawed, everyone runs for office promising to fix all the problems and then are unable to do much about any of them so they’re all viewed as disappointments, but maybe he’d still be better liked than he is today. Biden has done some very good things as President and over the course of his career but if Trump wins tonight, his selfishness may define his legacy.

8:40: Times now has Trump likely in Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina (though Nevada just at 52% so we’ll see). PA effectively tied. Means after all the hubub, probably will come down to the same three blue wall states as before (and winning Nevada doesn’t matter if Harris loses PA). I hate the idea that it all rests on Pennsylvania. And Silver now has Harris down to 51% (which is better than 49% but still, I liked 53% better).

8:37: Fuck. I’m going to be just as upset tonight as I was in 2016. Was hoping I’d prepared myself to not be but seeing the Times projecting Trump as the winner (as of this moment) is hitting me harder than I expected. 

8:33: Nate Silver has Harris at a 53% chance of winning the electoral college. Now the Times needle is live (so I guess it is happening) and they have Trump with 279 projected electoral college votes. So different experts with different views (ironically, Silver ran the needle for the Times when they were shockingly wrong about the outcome; I wonder if the Times is still scarred from that and the needle errs towards Trump as a result).

8:27: 92% of the vote in Florida in. No surprise that Trump wins the state but shows that the abortion referendum did not do much to help Harris (the referendum is currently at 57% which isn’t even enough to meet the 60% threshold). Doesn’t impact the race here but not a great sign for those hoping the abortion referendums in Nevada and Arizona will pull Harris through. With that said, Florida is the weirdest state in pretty much every way so maybe shouldn’t take too much from it.

8:14: Josh Stein just won the NC Governorship (no surprise after Mark Robinson repeatedly imploded). Universal School Meals was part of his platform. Doesn’t mean he’ll fight for it or even put it in his budget but it would be incredible if he did (my foundation funds and runs campaigns in states all over the country to mandate programs like Universal School Meals). Matt Meyer is about to be declared the new Governor of Delaware and he’s historically been for school meals too, so that’s another possibility for next session. Need the Democrats to keep a veto proof majority in the Nevada Senate to overcome a veto on school meals. Pennsylvania state legislature results tonight could impact things too though Shapiro hasn’t been that supportive of school meals to date, so it may not matter. Evers in Wisconsin has been great on school meals but hasn’t had the support from the legislature.  Maybe tonight will change the dynamic. 

7:51: Lots of anecdotal evidence about how poor Trump’s GOTV efforts are. That tracks logically but I still worry about echochambers where the same people keep repeating the same things to each other and reinforce their belief every time they hear it. But the notion that Lara Trump and Elon Musk didn’t know what they were doing on field isn’t surprising (yes, Elon has a constituency and maybe that’s why Trump is doing better among younger voters but it’s a limited constituency from a Presidential electoral standpoint). 

7:46: Along the same lines, not going to overreact to the data showing that Harris is outperforming Biden in North Carolina among older voters and underperforming Biden among younger voters. The good news is, a lot more old people vote than young people so if this is a statewide trend, it augurs well for Harris overall. 

7:39: Not going to overreact to Harris’ bad numbers in Broward County (FL) but it reinforces the point that people of color are not a bloc (nor are Latinos overall). It sounds like turnout in African American precincts in cities like Philly and Detroit was incredibly high. But that doesn’t mean that support translated to Latino cities like Miami. And while the “Puerto Rico is an island of trash” comment from Trump’s MSG rally may have made some Latinos angry, I know from my own campaign experience in NYC that Puerto Rican and Dominican voters are very different from Central and South American voters. So in a place like Miami that’s heavily Cuban and Central/ South American (according to Pew, 13% of Miami Latinos are Puerto Rican, Dominican or Mexican), the impact of the insult may not be felt (and even if it was, Puerto Rican and Dominican voters are, in my experience, more traditionally and culturally Democrat than voters from Central and South America). 

7:36: Convinced Lyle to work at the desk in my bedroom. Now have the tv volume on (thank god). The syncing was driving me crazy (plus he kept asking me questions and when I’d take the airpods out to listen to him, the feed would stop and then I’d have to try to sync all over again; I know, I know, it’s hard to be me).

7:34: Jim Justice just won the open WV Senate seat. Foregone conclusion but still a huge deal because if Harris wins but the Senate goes GOP as expected, getting nominees through (appointees and judicial) will be incredibly painful. If Trump wins (and if the House stays GOP), then budget reconciliation bills can get done with 50 votes, avoiding filibuster. That covers taxes, spending, lots of stuff. Especially important since the 2017 Trump tax cuts expire next year. 

7:24: Lots of good arguments already for mobile voting – a fire at a ballot drop box in Vancouver, Washington destroyed hundreds of ballots. Another drop box in Portland, Oregon was also set aflame. Election officials around the country have scrambled to protect their drop boxes. A man physically attacked a poll worker at a voting site in Texas. Another man brandished a machete and threatened voters at a polling site in Florida this week. In the final days of early voting, Chicago saw 2-3 hours waits. Columbus, 3 hour waits. Orlando, 2 hour waits. Two swing states were battered by hurricanes this fall. There were multiple tornadoes in Oklahoma over the fall. People have been evacuated, figuring out how to rebuild. Voting is far from the top of their priority list. Mobile voting solves all of these problems. 

The cognitive dissonance between where people think government matters and where it actually matters is interesting. Of course it matters who the President is. But, the vast majority of government action that impacts your life – call it 70-80% – happens at the state and local level, not federal. What really matters is who your mayor is, who your state rep is, who your governor is. And yet turnout in those elections is a fraction of what we’ll see today. That’s why we have local and state governments controlled by either end of the ideological spectrum – they’re the only ones who show up to vote in state and local primaries. 

7:21: Food just arrived. Went heavy on sides (baked beans, corn bread, cucumber salad, sweet potato mash), tried to be quasi healthy on the mains (brisket but also turkey) and then threw in some tacos (al pastor and brisket) just in case (it may be a long night).  

7:15: What does this mean for crypto? The expectation is that if Trump wins, bitcoin goes to 80-90k and if Harris wins, it falls to 50k. I don’t trade crypto but if I did, I would not be so worried if Harris wins. Yes, it’s reasonable to assume that Trump would be better for crypto than Harris because Harris is part of the Biden administration and Biden has been awful for crypto. However, Harris is not Biden. She’s not in her eighties. She’s from Northern California and gets tech far more inherently than Biden. And most important, there’s no way she keeps Gary Genlser, the SEC Chair who has been crypto’s biggest antagonist. Genlser’s anti-crypto stance has been mainly the product of his own ambition (doing whatever he can to please Elizabeth Warren, who he thought would successfully convince Biden to make him Treasury Secretary in a second term). Harris neither has the far left instincts of an Elizabeth Warren nor is Gary Gensler’s bottomless ambition her problem. A Trump SEC and administration may be more crypto friendly than a Harris presidency but the regulatory climate should improve meaningfully either way. 

7:07: Decided to stay on NBC and stop flipping around. A little tricky because I need to listen on my airpods and maybe it’s possible to hook them up to the tv but I have no clue how. So now have NBC on Hulu on my phone and the tv but of course, the feeds are somehow a few seconds off from each other. So after a lot of pressing pause and play on the remote and phone, I think they’re both lined up. 

The setting: My apartment. I’m stationed on the couch, tv on the wall in front of me, remote next to me, phone next to me, ipad with keyboard on the ottoman in front of me. Keeping blankets away so I don’t fall asleep (I have a bad habit of this). 

The crowd: My son Lyle (who’s in the corner at his desk doing his homework; has a chem test tomorrow) and me (plus the dog and the cat, who have both been suspiciously vague about their preference in this election; I guess according to JD Vance, the cat should like Harris).

6:59: I’m trying hard not to get too excited. People keep giving me snippets of information that sound good for Harris like that female turnout is up or the Culinary Workers in Vegas feel really good about her winning Nevada or that turnout in Philly is historic. Problem is there are most likely equivalent snippets to make the case for Trump. Not sure if I’m tempering myself because I am afraid of being let down and feeling like I did in 2016 or because I actually know better until real data is in. Probably a little bit of both. 

6:57: Polls about to close in Georgia. It took two weeks to get an outcome in 2020 and any margin under .5% triggers an automatic recount, so not expecting to learn much. Polls close in North Carolina at 7:30. Took 10 days there in 2020. Not sure we’ll know much absent one of the candidates materially overperforming in a non-swing state (if Trump does better than expected in a state like Vermont or Harris exceeds expectations in a state like South Carolina, that says something). 

6:53: What does this mean for New York?

If Trump wins:

• He will pursue policies that penalize New York in any way possible, raise taxes, reduce federal funding, reduce capital funding, etc…

• Eric Adams has a shot at his charges being dropped by a Trump DOJ (or maybe a pardon down the line from Trump if he’s convicted)

• Kathy Hochul has a much better shot of being re-elected, or, at the very least, the Democratic nominee for governor has a better shot at winning in 2026

• Democratic congressional candidates should fare better in 2026 assuming people remain unhappy with the status quo (which seems to be a constant across parties and politicians)

• Prominent NY politicians like Chuck Schumer, Hakeem Jeffries and AOC will have a constant spotlight to attack Trump

• The Democratic nominee in next year’s gubernatorial race in New Jersey has a better chance of winning

If Harris wins:

• New York politicians will have a lot more influence with the White House and will have more of its own throughout the administration

• There’s also then a better shot the Dems took the House which means Hakeem Jeffries becomes Speaker (still seems like a tough road for the Senate to stay Democratic but if it does, NYC (and Brooklyn to be even more specific) is home to the Speaker and Senate Majority Leader!)

• Damian Williams may be reappointed as US Attorney for SDNY and even if not, the charges against Eric Adams aren’t being dropped

• Kathy Hochul faces a tougher path in 2026 (as does someone else if they’re the nominee instead); maybe Hochul pursues a role in the Harris administration rather than running for another term

• Democratic congressional candidates in the Hudson Valley and Long Island will have lower odds in 2026

The Republican nominee in next year’s gubernatorial race in New Jersey has a better chance of winning (the Democrat is still favored but it’s the only way for a GOP candidate to be viable)

6:42: I need to decide whether my Mets/ Harris theory is real. In many ways, Harris’ candidacy felt to me like a baseball team that gets hot in late July, makes the wild card, stays hot through the playoffs and wins the whole thing (which happens a lot). 

The Mets did a version of this, starting the season disastrously and then being one of the best teams in baseball from June on and ultimately making it to Game 6 of the NLCS against the eventual champion Dodgers. But, I was convinced that the only way the Mets could make the wild card, beat the Brewers in the first round, beat the Phillies in the division round and then go from there was to predict, with total certainty, that they would lose every game. My extreme pessimism was clearly the catalyst for their ability to score runs, and had I approached it any other way, they were immediately and irrevocably doomed. 

I’ve been the same way around the election, so when people have asked me who I think will win, I’ve said “Unfortunately, probably Trump.” The question is whether I’ve been saying that because I actually believe it or because I’m trying to reverse-jinx the election. Logically speaking, the two candidates headed into election day effectively tied. Harris has a much better GOTV operation. In a tied election, that candidate should win. But is the election tied? The pollsters underestimated Trump in 2016 and 2020 and while they’ve tried to correct for the undercount, it’s unclear whether they’ve now gotten it right or overcompensated or undercompensated. There are multiple camps on what the right approach and methodology is. We’ll learn pretty soon who was right. 

The early vote was a little more favorable for Trump than expected. The power of the abortion referendums may be more powerful for Harris than expected. The Selzer Iowa poll may indicate more blue wall strength for Harris than expected. The undecideds may have always been for Trump and just didn’t want to say so. Harris may win more female votes than the polling indicated. Trump benefits from an unpopular incumbent and a high wrong track number (and let’s be honest, he’s the white guy in a country with a long history of racism and sexism). Who knows? I certainly don’t. 

Democratic insiders I’ve talked to feel better than they did a week ago, but they also felt that way in 2016, so it’s hard to really assume anyone knows what will happen. At this point, the votes have pretty much been cast, meaning the reverse jinx probably isn’t all that powerful, freeing me to predict Harris. But let’s be honest – I really hope it’s Harris but I don’t have any clue who pulls it out (or even whether one of them wins a lot more decisively than expected). So I’m taking the extremely courageous position of “I don’t know.”

6:24: Lyle just said he wants Hill Country. Comfort food it is. Ordering now. 

6:23: The first conundrum: what do you eat on election night? Do you go full on comfort food like pizza or burgers? Do you go heavy on protein like steak? Healthy like sushi or greek? Do you wait for a swing state update and then decide?