The Six Operative Questions in the NYC Mayoral Race

This is definitely the most competitive and interesting Democratic primary for mayor in a long time and based on how things turn out, we may just be getting started. 

To me, these are the final questions heading into the New York City mayoral primary next Tuesday. 

(1). Mamdani’s anti-Israel/anti-Jewish sentiment (depending how you look at it) is a feature, not a bug of his campaign. Combining growing anti-Israel opinions along with growing outright antisemitism by the left, Mamdani is able to capture voters in a way a typical left wing candidate (Lander, Ramos) could not. Rather than saying that he’s an up-and-comer or even that NYC itself is changing, he just did what good demagogues always do.

My view: Agree. It is a feature of a specific, highly talented candidate. 

(2). Lander is surging based on the Times panel, the Times sort of endorsement, the cross-endorsement, the attention from the arrest and has a genuine shot. 

My view: Disagree. It helps and therefore also helps Cuomo and hurts Mamdani, but isn’t enough to get Lander there. 

(3). If Cuomo wins next week, while there may be a somewhat competitive general election, if he has the Democratic line, it would be hard to lose. If Mamdani wins next week, the general could be truly competitive but the Democratic nominee — whoever it is — is still the favorite.

My view: True. If Mamdani is the nominee, beating him in the general is possible (look at Buffalo a few years ago) but far from assured. But it will take a major campaign and Cuomo and Adams could split much-needed votes that still elect Mamdani in the end. 

(4). Endorsements don’t matter. We always think they do but voters do what they want and the opinions of AOC, Bernie Sanders or Mike Bloomberg doesn’t change things all that much. Bloomberg’s money is helpful but comes too late to be that impactful.

— OR —

Endorsements do matter. AOC and Bernie is a huge boost for Mamdani. Bloomberg’s endorsement and money is a huge boost for Cuomo. Jessica Ramos’ voters care who she endorses. This all reshapes the race in the final days.

My view: I generally agree with the former but in this case, Bloomberg’s endorsement does go a long way towards reassuring voters who know in their head to vote for Cuomo but don’t really want to. The money may be too late to matter that much. AOC and Bernie’s endorsements don’t convert people to Mamdani but probably help increase his turnout and in a very close race, every vote matters.

(5). The New York Times is scrambling to compensate for a bad decision to stop issuing local endorsements but yet ended up in the right place for them given that: they were genuinely afraid of Mamdani and said so, they have real reservations about Cuomo and said so, but prefer him to Mamdani, and in their perfect world, Lander is the best option although still not great. Readers took all of that away from the piece so it was effectively similar to a traditional endorsement.

My view: The Times came out okay considering they started off in the wrong place (no one cares who they endorse for President — all of their influence happens in local elections where turnout and engagement is lower). Cuomo is ultimately the main beneficiary of the editorial. 

(6). Early voting turnout is a really good sign for Mamdani and a really bad sign for Cuomo because turnout is much, much heavier and much much younger. 

— OR —

Early voting turnout is expected because Mamdani voters are younger and highly engaged and Cuomo voters are older, less enthusiastic and more traditional. So Mamdani may have a significant lead now but it will evaporate on Election Day. 

My view: It’s unquestionably a good sign for Mamdani but it seems like turnout on Day 3 may have shifted into more Cuomo territory (Upper East Side, Midwood). If the youth vote doubles from say 180,000 to 360,000, that goes a long way for Mamdani but for it to truly all accrete to him, everyone else’s turnout has to stay flat. We don’t really know.