What Does DOJ Dropping the Charges Against Eric Adams Mean for the Mayoral Race?

Some very initial thoughts about the breaking news of the Justice Department ordering the Southern District of New York US Attorney’s Office to drop the pending criminal charges against Eric Adams:

(1). There will not be a lot of public outrage about the decision. People opposing every action Trump takes will oppose this too, but overall, the charges were confusing and felt too small-bore. Free upgrades on a flight to Turkey never felt like the crime of the century. It’s hard to envision real people marching through the streets demanding justice.

(2). However, dropping the charges will also not change the upcoming mayor’s race for a few reasons:

• Adams was not acquitted. He was not cleared. He was not vindicated. He was just done a favor by Trump. Even the stated reasons for dropping the charges weren’t that they found evidence clearing him of wrongdoing. It was that the indictment came too close to the election and that being under indictment was hindering Adams’ ability to carry out Trump’s orders around migrant deportation in New York City. The DOJ memo ordering the US Attorney to drop the charges literally even admits this: “The Justice Department has reached this conclusion without assessing the strength of the evidence or the legal theories on which the case is based.”

• Even though Trump outperformed expectations in New York City by winning 30% of the vote last November, he doesn’t have the kind of all encompassing influence among his supporters here that he does elsewhere. Many New Yorkers are frustrated with the condition of the city. It feels dirty and dangerous. The migrant crisis has made it worse and that was the doing of Joe Biden. So a vote for Trump in New York City was as much a vote against Biden and a vote expressing frustration with the status quo as anything else. An endorsement from Trump (tacitly by dropping the charges or explicitly) doesn’t change the underlying political dynamic — especially in a Democratic primary. In fact, a Siena poll last week found Trump’s favorability rating among New York City voters was 31% compared to 67% unfavorable. There’s no phoenix rising from the ashes in this scenario.

• Adams’ approval ratings are terrible. They’re at all time lows for any New York City mayor in recorded history. A poll from the Manhattan Institute shows that Adams has a favorability of minus 46. That’s nearly 3-1 with virtually no one undecided. If you don’t like Adams now, there’s nothing likely to change your mind in the next few months.

• An Emerson/ WPIX poll from last week showed Adams with just 10% of the vote in a primary compared to 33% for Andrew Cuomo. To make matters worse, Cuomo is very popular among Adams’ base of African American supporters meaning he will likely be the second choice vote on many of those ballots. That makes math virtually impossible for Adams to succeed.

• Another poll from Democratic strategist Bradley Honan shows that 75% of New York City residents think their city is in crisis, 70% are fearful about the city’s future and nearly half say they are considering leaving the city altogether. That is not a vote of confidence in the status quo. Even worse, the poll shows that 85% think that Adams should not be re-elected.

• There is speculation that Adams will try to run for re-election instead as a Republican. This would require 3 of the 5 GOP county leaders giving Adams clearance (known as a Wilson Pakula) to run as a Republican. Yes, in theory, Trump could call each of them and they would likely do it. But it doesn’t change the race at all. The Manhattan Institute poll shows Adams losing every general election matchup except those against Chris Christie and Curtis Sliwa. Christie and Sliwa are actual Republicans, which would require Adams to face them as the Democratic nominee. That’s not happening. On top of that, Republican voters want law and order. At the moment, we’re lacking both. Why would they then choose the guy whose city they already think is a mess?

(3). Yes, Eric Adams has been underestimated before and proven his critics wrong. But he was never mayor before. He never ran anything before. He never presided over a city where half the residents want to leave, where virtually all of them agree he should not be re-elected. Adams would have had an incredibly difficult time winning re-election even had he never been indicted. Now it’s virtually impossible.

(4). It’s certainly possible that after Adams’ term ends on December 31, Trump will appoint him to a federal role. The greatest risk for Adams isn’t that Trump cares about accusations of corruption. It’s that Trump thinks Adams is a loser. If Adams runs and gets wiped out, that’s what Trump will think. Running and losing badly is a real risk for Adams if he has any hopes of working for Trump in the future. And given the absolute masterclass Adams conducted in winning Trump’s favor, he clearly understands how this president thinks.

(5). With all of that said, ironically, the Adams administration is currently the best it has ever been. Virtually all of the mayor’s cronies who were focused solely on power and influence and rivalries and corruption have been forced out of their jobs. The people remaining are mainly very competent public servants doing their jobs well. While I would not vote for Adams for re-election, I’m happy to see this crew run the city for the next eleven months.

I have no desire to see Eric Adams behind bars. I like him personally and don’t think the crimes he was charged with committing necessarily even merited jail time. I also think he hasn’t done the job as mayor (although he has had some impressive wins) and unlike virtually any other job in politics, if you’re not succeeding as mayor, there’s nowhere to hide. I guess Adams will still run for re-election but it’s not an easy call for him and his advisors, especially if Andrew Cuomo enters the race as rumored in the next few weeks. We’ll know more soon.