When the World Gets Loud, Capital Gets Quiet

The headlines are screaming. Oil’s spiking. Futures are slipping. Pundits are pulling maps of the Strait of Hormuz out of storage and debating how many ships it would take to trigger World War III.

If you’re a founder trying to raise a round right now, this can all feel existential. And for some in the market — especially later-stage investors who have to answer to jittery LPs — it is. Geopolitical shocks like the U.S.-Iran escalation give people cover to do what they were already inclined to do: slow down, say no, push decisions out by a quarter or two.

But the truth is: unless your startup literally relies on oil tankers moving through the Strait of Hormuz, this conflict doesn’t affect you directly. What does matter is how you operate through it.

Startups are built in chaos. That’s always been true. Whether it’s a war, a recession, an election, or a regulatory crackdown, the external world will always be messy. What separates great founders from everyone else isn’t that they ignore the noise, it’s that they know which signal to follow.

So here’s the signal: capital retreats when the world gets loud. That’s your opportunity.

The VCs you were talking to two weeks ago may suddenly have “internal stuff” to figure out. The angels who seemed eager might be “pausing new investments until the fall.” Don’t take it personally. Take it as a reminder. In moments like this, the advantage shifts to calm operators who keep building.

The best startups are resilient not just in their infrastructure, but in their mindset. They aren’t paralyzed by what might happen in the Middle East or who’s polling in Michigan. They’re focused on solving problems that still matter regardless of the chaos: how we get care, how we move goods, how we educate kids, how we hold elections.

And when the fog lifts (and it always does) those founders are the ones with product velocity, market traction, and leverage at the table.

I’ve worked in politics long enough to know that the scariest headlines often have the shortest shelf lives. Yes, what’s happening in Iran is serious. But don’t mistake geopolitical drama for macro relevance. Most of it won’t show up in your CAC or LTV.

So, if you’re a founder:

• Keep your head down.
  

• Stay in touch with your investors.
  

• Send your updates anyway, even if they don’t reply this week.
  

• Ship your product.
  

• Talk to your customers.

The calm, focused ones win in the end. The world’s loud right now. Let everyone else panic. You? Keep building.