You Have To Be For Something

According to the New York Times, over the past 4 years, the Democratic Party has lost 2.1 million members. At the same time, the GOP has gained 2.4 million members. You can blame Biden, Harris, Schumer, Jeffries and Pelosi. You can blame the pollsters. You can blame Trump. But in reality, the problem is simple: you have to be for something. And that something has to be something people like.

Trump has a vision for America. It’s a highly regressive vision that takes us back to the days of unequal rights and far more Americans living in poverty. But it promises restored glory: the return of manufacturing, the prioritization of real Americans over illegal immigrants, the free market being left to its own devices to make us all rich. In reality, Trump’s work is undermining virtually everything that makes America great (rule of law, attracting the best and brightest, innovation) and our economy great (independent markets, an independent Fed and data, free trade, spending on R&D, spending on higher ed, intellectual property protection, immigration). But his supporters see a vision that they like.

Democrats not only failed to offer any sort of vision for the country that resonated, they managed to behave in ways that alienated a lot of voters too. That’s why the “he’s for us; she’s for they/ them” ad that Trump used against Harris was so effective.

Democratic officials will point to dozens of policy ideas they’ve proposed — or even passed — and show that polling and focus groups affirm the popularity of every one of those ideas. That’s absolutely true. But when you govern by focus group, you’ve already lost. An idea can’t just work on paper or inside of a room with one way mirrors. It has to resonate in the streets. The Democratic agenda has not done that since Obama.

One Democrat (well, a socialist democrat) who clearly understood this was Zohran Mamdani. Whether or not you like his vision, he had one. He identified affordability as one of the key issues that matter to New York City voters and his plan of freezing the rent, free buses and free child care really struck a chord with voters. His opponents never effectively laid out their own vision for the five boroughs (sure, some of the candidates had lots and lots of white papers but no one could tell you in a sentence — or even a paragraph — what they stood for).

Democrats nationally are not going to regain office, regain their mojo, or regain voters until they develop an agenda that resonates intrinsically with regular people and a messenger who cuts through.

Lots of Democrats with impressive resumes like Pete Buttigieg and JB Pritzker and Gretchen Whitmer and Gavin Newsom and Josh Shapiro are going to run for President in 2028. Many people on the list are highly competent and could be good presidents. But as of right now, I couldn’t give you an elevator pitch for what any of them stand for (and other than reciting poll tested lines, I’m not sure they could either). Some governors are starting to stand out — pushing back on Trump over things like armed troops and redistricting — but they'll also need to show, steadily and in full view, that they can deliver real, visible gains where people live in their state if they want a serious shot at the presidency in 2028. But even that only works if people believe you.

The candidate who has a message that feels real and true and authentic is the one who will advance. If AOC runs, she will have that message and authenticity, but it only appeals to about a quarter of the Democratic electorate so the math for her is tough (it’s not impossible, but it becomes more likely you have a very long primary and some compromise candidate emerges who, once the media honeymoon is over, is no more resonant with the American people than Harris was).

Republicans have succeeded because Trump, awful as he is, is a singular political talent. Obama was that too. If the Democrats have a candidate that can articulate a vision that feels true to them and true to voters — and is not ideologically so narrow as to alienate everyone else — they can win. But I haven’t seen any evidence of that for 2028 — nor for the midterms (the only message so far is that Trump is bad).

The Democratic Party can conduct all the internal analyses they want. They can poll and focus group till the cows come home. None of it will matter.

Figure out what you truly stand for, be able to encapsulate it into a slogan and a handful of clear policies, get behind the candidate who real people actually like, and just talk about that and pretty much only that. Until then, the stampede of voters leaving the party will only continue.