How Biden Thinks
People run for office because they have a deep, deep hole in their psyche that can only be filled with endless external praise and affirmation. They say they’re running for office to represent their community or to fight for a specific idea or constituency, but that’s typically not true. They run for office to quell their own insecurities.1
Joe Biden is a politician, through and through. Always has been. We keep arguing that he should drop out of the race because it’s best for the country, because it’s best for the world. He doesn’t care. He may think he does, but at the end of the day, he thinks like a politician. That means he will only do what he believes to be in his best interest personally and politically. Any successful argument means convincing him that there’s more upside for him in dropping out, not that he should do what’s right because it’s right.
So if you were Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton or Nancy Pelosi or Chuck Schumer or Hakeem Jeffries or Bill Clinton and you were trying to respectfully convince Biden to withdraw from the race, what would you say that could actually work? Three things.
(1). This allows you to pardon Hunter. Your son was unfairly prosecuted and convicted. He faces 15 to 21 months in prison. Given his fragile condition, he cannot handle that. You alone have the power to save him. You have been reluctant to use it because it’s a bad look for a candidate for office. But once you’re not a candidate, you’re free to do whatever you want. Sure, some people will criticize you for it, but they’re already criticizing you every day, so screw them. This sticks it to them and saves your kid.
The best interest of the Biden family is actually for you to not be a candidate. It’s for you to be a dad. You’ve spent decades trying to protect Hunter, worrying about Hunter, taking care of Hunter. You know better than anyone else how hard he has worked, how much he has dealt with. You know he was only prosecuted because you’re President. No normal person would have been. He doesn’t deserve that. Imagine how painful it will be to see him go to prison, for you, for Jill, for him, for the entire family. Don’t do that to him. Don’t do that to them. Don’t do that to yourself.
(2). Even if you somehow win in November, the entire next term will still be a constant (and literal) death watch. The scrutiny and skepticism will make it impossible to govern and there will be discussions and calls for invoking the 25th Amendment every single day. The Senate very well may flip and they’re going to investigate you relentlessly. Republicans very well may hold the House too2 – which means winning is losing. It will be miserable. It’s not worth it. You’ve given your whole life to this country. Enough is enough. You don’t deserve this and you don’t have to put yourself through it.
(3). You’ve done a lot of damage to your legacy, but it can still be mitigated if you take action. If you refuse to withdraw and lose to Trump, then that becomes your entire legacy. Everything else you’ve accomplished: beating Trump in 2020, getting the country through covid, all of the climate achievements, your tenure as Vice President, your tenure in the Senate – all of it becomes an afterthought. None of it matters. That is wildly unfair to you and to all of the work you’ve done. If you withdraw now and we beat Trump with whomever replaces you on the ticket, then the messiness of the last few months will be forgotten. Even if we don’t win, whoever’s on the ticket owns the loss, not you.
While there are still a handful of people around you – sometimes people with their own agendas – telling you that you can win, they’re wrong. We know this. Between us, we’ve won four presidential elections, been the Democratic nominee five times, and have engineered hundreds and hundreds of wins in House and Senate races in every single state. We know this stuff better than anyone and we’re telling you that your odds of winning are very low. It may be unfair, it may be ageist but the public does not think you’re young and agile enough to do the job. The entire election is about your mental fitness and that’s even with an opponent who was just convicted on 34 different criminal counts. You’re risking everything you’ve ever worked for. It’s a bad trade. It’s not in your political interest to pursue this. Full stop.
And if Kamala does become President, that’s your doing. You chose to make her Vice President. You did something truly unselfish to give her an opportunity to win at the convention and run for President. You campaigned hard for her election. The first woman and the first black (and Indian) woman became President thanks to you. That’s a perfect coda to your career and a perfect cherry on top of your legacy.
Now, is all of this enough to convince Biden to withdraw? Maybe, maybe not. But appealing to him to act in the best interests of the country or the party is futile. It’s not how politicians think. The only way to convince him to do what’s right for us is to align that with what’s best for him.
Yes, there are exceptions. You’re thinking of a handful right now. To me, that only proves the rule.
Obviously, Chuck and Hakeem would not want to make this particular point.